Récord histórico en el volumen de absorción de oficinas: 65% menos que el año anterior
La escasa actividad empresarial durante el período estival ha marcado el resultado del tercer trimestre.
La estabilidad de los yields es premonición de un cambio de tendencia.
Según los datos que desprende el último informe de oficinas de la consultora inmobiliaria Savills, septiembre cerró con poco más de 50.000 m2 contratados en el mercado de oficinas de la capital. Sin embargo, ahora es más factible conseguir una oficina o edificio en zona prime, algo inalcanzable para algunos hace unos años.
Los indicadores económicos continúan con signo negativo y sin vistas a una recuperación inmediata a excepción del IPC que podría cerrar el año por encima de cero. España sigue en la cola de Europa en cuanto a tasa de desempleo, rondando porcentajes de casi el 18%, según las dos últimas Encuestas de Población Activa realizadas en el segundo y tercer trimestre.
El volumen de absorción de oficinas entre enero y septiembre de este año supera ligeramente los 173.000 m2 y de nuevo se sobrepasa la cota mínima alcanzada en la década, un 57% por debajo de la absorción bruta durante el mismo periodo en 2008, un 63% menor que la media de contratación registrada en los últimos cinco años y un 60% inferior a la media de la década.
El incremento de la oferta dentro del anillo de la M-30 y el continuo ajuste de los valores de renta, han favorecido que la demanda de oficinas vuelva al centro de la ciudad, incluso usuarios en busca de espacios de más de 1.000 m² pueden encontrar varias alternativas, algo impensable meses atrás.
El 40% de la contratación se ha concentrado en el CBD (Central Business District) y el área urbana. Fuera del anillo de la M-30, la zona norte y la A-1 han sumado el 25% de la absorción total.
Cada vez más oficinas vacías
Con cerca de 1,2 millones de metros cuadrados vacíos en el mercado, la tasa de disponibilidad ha alcanzado en septiembre el 9,2%. El retraso en la entrega de las torres del CTBA favorecerá una evolución más sosegada del índice de vacío.
La tasa de disponibilidad desde finales de 2007 sigue ascendiendo. Septiembre se cerró con un nivel de vacío del 9,2% desde el trimestre anterior la superficie disponible del mercado de oficinas de la capital sumó casi 100.000 m2 vacíos, es decir, creció en torno al 10% hasta rozar una oferta de 1,2 millones de metros cuadrados. Durante los meses de verano se incorporaron poco más de 90.000 m2, de los que el 18% entraron ya ocupados por inquilinos con contratos de prealquiler.
Si finalmente no se produce ningún aplazamiento más, el año podría cerrar con cerca de 305.000 m2.
La superficie total prevista para 2009 y 2010 no ofrecen grandes diferencias en el volumen global, el espacio que se incorporará vacío supera en un 52% la superficie especulativa entregada durante el año en curso.
Las rentas continúan en la espiral del descenso
La renta de cierre en la zona CBD se situó en el tercer trimestre de 2009 en 28 €/m2/mes, lo que representa una variación de cerca de un 33% en negativo respecto al nivel alcanzado hace un año. Fuera de la almendra central, en las áreas prime externas a la M-30, los valores máximos, se situaron en torno a los 20 €/m2/mes; la comparativa con los valores del mismo periodo del año 2008 es más suave que en el Eje Castellana, un 17% por debajo.
En líneas generales las correcciones se mantendrán hasta mediados de 2010, si bien la evolución de cada mercado y submercado será independiente, e incluso en determinadas ocasiones, algún edificio o un complejo de edificios se erigirán como un “micro mercado”, trastocando los datos globales.
En CBD parece que vamos camino de los valores alcanzados en el 2004. Los 24-25 €/m2/mes podrían ser el tope para posteriormente tomar impulso e iniciar una lenta recuperación.
El mercado de inversión continua bajo mínimos
Nuevamente un registro trimestral que marca mínimo histórico en la serie de la década. Entre enero y septiembre las adquisiciones han alcanzado 450 millones de euros. La comparativa con los primeros nueve meses del año anterior deja saldos negativos en todos los apartados; se firmaron un 47% menos de operaciones, se alcanzó un descenso del 66% en el volumen de inversión y el volumen medio de los activos se ha situado en 26 millones de euros.
Durante el tercer trimestre ha habido pocas operaciones registradas, pero la escasez de firmas no implica un parón en el mercado. Los ya de por sí prolongados procesos de toma de decisiones, se han extendido aún más por las nada halagüeñas previsiones económicas y por las dificultades a la hora de obtener financiación.
La mayor parte de los inmuebles están por debajo de los 40 millones de euros, por lo que encajarían en las perspectivas de precio del perfil de comprador más activo: inversores privados nacionales, mutualidades y family office. El problema radica en que la mayoría de los activos no cumple con todos los criterios de calidad: localización, tipo de inmueble, inquilino y duración de contrato, etc. Por eso, las estructuras sale&leaseback con contratos a largo plazo e inquilinos solventes también captan el interés de la demanda, pero la ubicación descentralizada o alejada el CBD de algunos de los inmuebles, podría dificultar el cierre de alguna operación, a pesar de que en conjunto se presente como una buena oportunidad de compra.
Estabilidad en el nivel de rentabilidad
Por segundo mes consecutivo las rentabilidades prime se mantienen en el 6%. De momento, todo apunta a que podrían permanecer en la misma línea hasta final de año.
Según Rafael Merry del Val, Director General de Savills, España “los niveles de rentabilidad en el CBD de importantes mercados europeos de oficinas, como Londres y Paris, han empezado el descenso. Puede ser el anticipo de que las yields de Madrid en Castellana seguirán el mismo recorrido”.
Previsiones de Mercado
En el mercado de usuarios las expectativas a corto plazo no son muy optimistas. A pesar de esto, existen varias demandas grandes en busca de nuevas sedes. En función de cuántas de ellas se materialicen en una firma, dependerá que el volumen anual se sitúe más próximo a uno u otro extremo de la horquilla de 225.000 m2 -250.000 m2, lo que aproximadamente representaría la mitad del total de superficie contratada en 2008.
Las yields seguirán estables atisbando un cambio de estrategia. Durante el 2010, es posible que se ajusten a la baja pero, ante el descenso de rentas, el precio por metro cuadrado podría caer aún más.
fuente : Savills
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RHA-Chambéry, Capital Ressources, cabinet de recrutement spécialisé dans les fonctions commerciales, recherche pour son client,ISELECTION, filiale du groupe Caisse d'Epargne,un Conseiller Commercial en défiscalisation immobilière.Rattaché(e) à votre directeur régional et aux différentes agences bancaires CAISSE D'EPARGNE de votre secteur géographique (Chambéry, Aix-les-Bains, Voiron), vous aure...
03/09/2010 02:12
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LOR-Nancy, Capital Ressources, cabinet de recrutement spécialisé dans les fonctions commerciales, recherche pour son client,ISELECTION, filiale du groupe Caisse d'Epargne, un CONSEILLER COMMERCIAL EN DEFISCALISATION IMMOBILIERE basé à NANCY.Rattaché(e) à votre directeur régional et aux différentes agences bancaires CAISSE D'EPARGNE de votre secteur géographique (Nancy, Epinal, Sarrebourg...
03/09/2010 02:25
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PACA-Cavaillon, Postes à pouvoir sur le Vaucluse, le Nord des Bouches-du-Rhône et la DrômeAvignon / Carpentras / Cavaillon / Orange / Saint Rémi de Provence / Valréas / Valence VOS MISSIONS :• Développer votre notoriété et celle de l’entreprise sur un secteur affecté• Constituer un stock de biens immobiliers attractif à commercialiser• Mettre en œuvre tous les moyens de promotion disponibles a...
02/09/2010 03:00
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IDF-PARIS, LTD INTERNATIONAL, Cabinet de Recrutement et Société de Travail Temporaire, recherche pour l'un de ses clients: UN(E) COMPTABLE GROUPE D'ASSOCIATIONS SYNDICALES & REGULARISATIONS DE CHARGESAu sein d'une équipe dédiée à la production des bilans de charges et la tenue de la comptabilité des Associations Syndicales et sous l'autorité du Responsable des Associations Syndicales e...
02/09/2010 02:27
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ALS-Strasbourg, Hays Immobilier recrute pour son client, acteur majeur de la promotion immobilière, son futur Responsable du développement foncier.Implanté depuis plus de 20 ans dans l'Est de la France, notre client intervient sur les différents marchés de la promotion/construction : logement, immobilier tertiaire, hôtellerie et résidences services.Vous intervenez sur deux régions (Alsace e...
03/09/2010 06:32
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Henderson Global Investors extends £560 million Central London Office Fund I
02/09/2010
